Don't let the door hit you on the way out

So, at last the day I am sure the PM has been waiting for has arrived. Field has done something that gives a plausible excuse for expelling him. As serious as the allegations of corruption were, without any real proof, they did not provide a sound basis for his removal from the party.

The interesting questions are what Field will do, and what affect this change in the balance of power will have. I can't see Field resigning and forcing a by-election, unfortunately. I think his sense of self preservation is too strong for him to take that risk. Presumably he will spend the next year and a half either planning a life after parliament, or firming up his support base in Mangere. I would expect him to lose fairly easily at the next election, as long as Labour select a credible PI candidate to replace him.

As for the balance of power, I cannot see any massive changes, National would still need the support of either the Maori Party or the Greens to win a no-confidence vote. I just can't see that happening. It may just make it that little bit harder for Labour to get legislation through, but they are still in fundamentally the same position of needing to secure support from the minor parties on a case-by-case basis.

As such, I think this is a very positive move. Labour has gotten rid of an ongoing nuisance, at little immediate cost. Field was frankly an offence to a party which stands for the underprivileged, as Field stood accused of exploiting just those people. Of course the allegations were unproven, but they was not exactly refuted convincingly. In my view, he ought to have been drummed out sooner on some pretext or other. Still, all's well that ends well!